We'reCrisis-Level Fucked.

The situation is large, loud, and compounding, with repeated severe events preventing any real cooling-off period.

0.0

Crisis-Level Fucked

Live global severity index

54% confidence

Drivers

What moved the meter

natural disaster

+9.7

M 7.4 - 126 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia

7.4 magnitude earthquake near 126 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia.

about 15 hours ago

usgs

public health

+9.6

Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation

The purpose of this report is to raise awareness about the local transmission of clade Ib monkeypox virus (MPXV) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in countries previously unaffected or to date reporting only cases linked to travel. This report summarizes recent epidemiological developments, response activities, and the associated global public health risk. The second declaration of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) for mpox was lifted on 5 September 2025. As both MPXV clades I and II and their subclades continue to circulate globally, leading to substantial outbreaks in African countries, WHO continues to advise emergency preparedness and response activities. Multiple modes of transmission underlie ongoing virus circulation, with sexual contact remaining the primary amplifier of transmission in most settings. Since 5 September 2025, several countries across four of six WHO regions have confirmed clade Ib MPXV infection in individuals with no recent travel reported (WHO African Region, Region of the Americas, the European Region and the Western Pacific Region), most of which are being detected among men who have sex with men, suggesting local transmission, particularly given that infections often manifest with few or no symptoms (paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic cases) leading to undetected onward transmission. Overall, the surveillance data in most countries is sufficient to detect and respond effectively to mpox outbreaks. However, thorough epidemiological investigation, contact tracing and implementation of public health interventions to control spread remain challenging. Mpox is known to resolve on its own over two to four weeks in most cases. However, timely access to quality healthcare is essential to identify, prevent and manage secondary bacterial infections and other complications. Individuals living with immune suppressive conditions remain at high risk of more severe mpox disease and death, most notably people living with undetected and/or untreated, uncontrolled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Men who have sex with men with new and/or multiple partners remain at increased risk of clade Ib and also IIb MPXV infection. WHO assesses the public health risk posed by clade Ib MPXV to men who have sex with men as moderate and the risk to the general population as low in most countries.

4 months ago

who_don

macroeconomic

+9.2

South Korea Consumer Inflation Accelerates on Mideast Energy Shock

WSJ reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to South Korea.

about 14 hours ago

current_news

Key headlines

Evidence shaping the score

usgsabout 15 hours agonatural disasterGlobal

M 7.4 - 126 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia

7.4 magnitude earthquake near 126 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia.

97.0

Open source
who_don4 months agopublic healthGlobal

Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation

The purpose of this report is to raise awareness about the local transmission of clade Ib monkeypox virus (MPXV) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in countries previously unaffected or to date reporting only cases linked to travel. This report summarizes recent epidemiological developments, response activities, and the associated global public health risk. The second declaration of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) for mpox was lifted on 5 September 2025. As both MPXV clades I and II and their subclades continue to circulate globally, leading to substantial outbreaks in African countries, WHO continues to advise emergency preparedness and response activities. Multiple modes of transmission underlie ongoing virus circulation, with sexual contact remaining the primary amplifier of transmission in most settings. Since 5 September 2025, several countries across four of six WHO regions have confirmed clade Ib MPXV infection in individuals with no recent travel reported (WHO African Region, Region of the Americas, the European Region and the Western Pacific Region), most of which are being detected among men who have sex with men, suggesting local transmission, particularly given that infections often manifest with few or no symptoms (paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic cases) leading to undetected onward transmission. Overall, the surveillance data in most countries is sufficient to detect and respond effectively to mpox outbreaks. However, thorough epidemiological investigation, contact tracing and implementation of public health interventions to control spread remain challenging. Mpox is known to resolve on its own over two to four weeks in most cases. However, timely access to quality healthcare is essential to identify, prevent and manage secondary bacterial infections and other complications. Individuals living with immune suppressive conditions remain at high risk of more severe mpox disease and death, most notably people living with undetected and/or untreated, uncontrolled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Men who have sex with men with new and/or multiple partners remain at increased risk of clade Ib and also IIb MPXV infection. WHO assesses the public health risk posed by clade Ib MPXV to men who have sex with men as moderate and the risk to the general population as low in most countries.

96.0

Open source
current_newsabout 14 hours agomacroeconomicKR

South Korea Consumer Inflation Accelerates on Mideast Energy Shock

WSJ reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to South Korea.

92.0

Open source
current_newsabout 10 hours agomacroeconomicIR, KR

South Korea CPI inflation rises 2.2% in March as Iran war drives energy costs

Investing.com reported a recent macroeconomic signal connected to South Korea.

92.0

Open source

Drivers

Domain breakdown

Conflict & security

Weight 22%

60.4

Confidence 54%

Coverage sparse

96 live proxy signals in this window

96 live proxy signals are contributing here while fuller structured coverage is still being built out.

Civil unrest

Weight 14%

42.2

Confidence 54%

Coverage sparse

6 live proxy signals in this window

6 live proxy signals are contributing here while fuller structured coverage is still being built out.

Macroeconomic stress

Weight 14%

83.3

Confidence 90%

Coverage measured

72 evidence items in this window

72 evidence items are currently lifting this domain.

Public health

Weight 10%

83.8

Confidence 90%

Coverage measured

13 evidence items in this window

13 evidence items are currently lifting this domain.

Natural disasters

Weight 13%

67.5

Confidence 90%

Coverage measured

82 evidence items in this window

82 evidence items are currently lifting this domain.

Climate & environment

Weight 10%

54.8

Confidence 90%

Coverage measured

22 evidence items in this window

22 evidence items are currently lifting this domain.

Cyber & infrastructure

Weight 9%

0.0

Confidence 24%

Coverage sparse

0 live proxy signals in this window

Proxy monitoring is live here, but it did not surface a strong enough signal in this window.

Governance

Weight 8%

46.8

Confidence 49%

Coverage sparse

5 live proxy signals in this window

5 live proxy signals are contributing here while fuller structured coverage is still being built out.

Context

What is holding this reading up

  • Public health is currently the hottest live lane.
  • 296 live evidence items are shaping this reading across 8 covered domains.
  • Live inputs now include USGS Earthquake Catalog, Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality, WHO Disease Outbreak News, World Bank macro indicators, Current news signal.
Read methodologyInspect source health

Trend

Score drift

24h

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

7d

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offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

30d

--

offline

Score history storage is offline. Start Postgres and keep score snapshots running.

Rankings

Most and least fucked tracked countries

Most fucked

Tracked top 5
01

Egypt

Intensely Fucked

69.6

-1.5 vs global

02

Japan

Multi-Front Fucked

66.6

-4.5 vs global

03

Iran

Broadly Fucked

65.1

-6.0 vs global

04

Ukraine

Intensely Fucked

61.4

-9.7 vs global

05

Russia

Deeply Fucked

60.1

-11.0 vs global

Least fucked

Tracked bottom 5
01

Brazil

Manageably Fucked

18.8

-52.3 vs global
02

United Kingdom

Materially Fucked

20.7

-50.4 vs global
03

South Korea

Materially Fucked

24.5

-46.6 vs global
04

Philippines

Worryingly Fucked

25.6

-45.5 vs global
05

Indonesia

Noticeably Fucked

29.0

-42.1 vs global

Integrity

Source health and freshness

USGS Earthquake Catalog

Freshness: live-ish

operational

80 earthquakes returned in the current 7-day query window.

Last success: 14 minutes ago

Latency: 1535 ms

Open-Meteo Weather & Air Quality

Freshness: live-ish

operational

22 monitoring points sampled successfully.

Last success: 14 minutes ago

Latency: 1532 ms

GDELT Global Event Monitor

Freshness: stale

offline

Request timed out after 8000 ms

Last success: None yet

Latency: n/a

WHO Disease Outbreak News

Freshness: fresh

operational

12 outbreak bulletins parsed from the current WHO feed.

Last success: 20 days ago

Latency: 3480 ms

World Bank macro indicators

Freshness: fresh

operational

15 country macro snapshots cleared the stress threshold.

Last success: about 1 month ago

Latency: 1476 ms

Current news signal

Freshness: live-ish

operational

167 classified headline signals captured across 22 successful countries.

Last success: 14 minutes ago

Latency: 2017 ms